Both conflicts and natural disasters produce life-threatening situations for citizens and migrants. While violence is at the core of the threat in conflicts, natural hazards represent the threat in natural disasters. During conflict, citizens and non-citizens alike may be the targets of armed attacks and sexual and gender-based violence, and both groups risk forced recruitment into armed forces. In some cases, migrants may be the specific target of violence, as occurred in Libya in 2011. In natural disasters, both populations may be harmed if there is widespread destruction of habitat and livelihoods. Migrants may be more likely to live in neighbourhoods with poor housing and infrastructure, leaving them particularly vulnerable to the impacts of natural disasters. In both cases, individuals, families, and affected communities have limited capacity to overcome the threats without the help of national governments, civil society, and private sector actors and, where added capacity is needed, the international community. This issue brief examines the differential impacts of conflicts and natural disasters on migrants. It goes on to discuss existing legal and policy frameworks that guide actions on conflicts and natural disasters and explores practical constraints in responding to the needs of migrants in each type of situation. These include failures in governance at the national and local levels, particularly during conflict, which make protection of noncitizens by host countries difficult; weaknesses in early warning and emergency preparedness systems; difficulties in mounting large-scale evacuations when non-citizens are unable to remain in the affected countries; barriers to effective collaboration between the military and humanitarian actors, particularly in conflict situations; and challenges to reintegrate migrants who must return to their home countries because of conflicts or natural disasters.

The following pages analyse the roles and best practices, which different stakeholders can adopt in disaster and crisis management, with regard to supporting migrants coping with crises. The paper starts with the discussion of the key concepts of vulnerability and resilience in order to set a frame for stakeholder involvement. Resorting to stakeholder theory, it defines migrants as “dormant stakeholders” in crisis and disaster management, which need to be involved into crisis management in order to make use of their capabilities. Analysing the main challenges of the involvement of migrants, it defines main areas of stakeholder involvement in the different phases of a crisis. Based on examples from the dialogue meetings within the MICIC framework, it further outlines key areas of action and develops suggestions for improving stakeholder inclusion into crisis and disaster management and mitigation.

Este es un estudio exploratorio para analizar la vulnerabilidad y la exposición a riesgos de origen social y natural de los migrantes en México. El objetivo central es analizar la vulnerabilidad de los migrantes ante la violencia y violaciones a derechos humanos, así como ante emergencias de origen natural causadas por fenómenos hidrometeorológicos. Se describirán también las estructuras nacionales para responder a situaciones de emergencia. En casos de procesos sociales como de fenómenos naturales, se destacan los niveles institucionales y no institucionales, y se analiza la forma en la que se incluyen o excluyen a los migrantes y extranjeros dentro de los esfuerzos de gestión de riesgos, prevención de crisis, preparación, respuesta y recuperación, haciendo énfasis en los mandatos, roles y capacidades que podrían fortalecerse para una mejor inclusión de los migrantes

This report presents the comparative findings of research spanning two years on migrants caught in situations of crisis in a destination country. The research focused on the longer-term socio-economic impacts of these crises on migrants, on their families and on the countries affected by the crisis. It was conducted by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD), the University of Oxford’s International Migration Institute (IMI) and local research partners in the fieldwork countries, in the context of the larger European Union (EU)-funded project “Migrants in Countries in Crisis: Supporting an Evidence-based Approach for Effective and Cooperative State Action” (MICIC).That EU-funded project aims to improve the capacity of states and other stakeholders to assist and provide protection to migrants who find themselves in countries affected by crisis – through in-depth research, consultations with government and other relevant stakeholders and capacity building. With this three-pronged approach, the project contributes to the global MICIC Initiative, a government-led process co-chaired by the governments of the Philippines and the United States. Based on the inputs of states, civil society, international organisations and private sector stakeholders on both the project and the initiative, the MICIC Initiative released its “Guidelines to Protect Migrants in Countries Experiencing Conflict or Natural Disaster”, to help states and other stakeholders respond to the needs of migrants caught in crisis situations. The empirical research described in this report confirms many of the issues raised and policy priorities recommended in these guidelines.

Tracking the risks and exposure to conflicts and natural disasters in regions, countries and localities, and assessing how such crises can affect migrants and their assets, is a vital step towards protecting migrants. Understanding regional, national and local risks, and overlaying this information with data on the location and characteristics of migrants can inform targeted preparation and response efforts. All conflicts and natural disasters are not entirely unpredictable. Conflicts may be preceded by various signs, including protests, xenophobic violence and civil unrest. While many natural disasters occur with great immediacy, different countries and regions are more prone to specific types of hazards than others; those related to weather events for example, often occur with some forewarning, and some are cyclical and recurrent. A number of early warning systems exist to monitor hazards and alert communities. Often, local actors may possess the most timely and accurate information on impending crises and are valuable sources of knowledge.

When conflicts or natural disasters erupt, they can disproportionately affect migrants living, working, studying, traveling, or transiting in the country experiencing the crisis. The earthquake and tsunami in Tohoku, Japan (2011), the floods in Thailand (2011), hurricane Sandy in the United States (2012), and the outbreak of conflicts in the Central African Republic and in Yemen in recent years are but a few examples of crises in which migrants were among those seriously affected. While they are resilient and resourceful, a variety of factors create particular vulnerability for migrants in the face of such crises. Language barriers, restrictions on mobility, irregular immigration status, confiscated or lost identity or travel documents, limited social networks, isolation, and attacks and discrimination are some of the factors that hinder the ability of migrants to access protection, move out of harm’s way, or otherwise ensure their own safety and wellbeing. The Migrants in Countries in Crisis (MICIC) Initiative was conceived to address these challenges.

Climate change increases the risk of natural disasters and places a strain on livelihoods; it exacerbates poverty and can potentially cause situations of conflict and instability. These conditions, when combined with a mismatch between demand for labour and supply and the proliferation of unscrupulous recruitment agencies, increase high-risk behaviours and other negative coping strategies among affected populations. This may include resorting to migrant smugglers, which in turn makes them vulnerable to trafficking in persons (TiP) and associated forms of exploitation and abuse. The impact of climate change, however, is rarely considered as a potential contributor to human trafficking in global discussions or nationallevel policy frameworks, and the nexus remains relatively underexplored.

Building on the existing foundation of research, this chapter examines two distinctive case studies, the Nepal earthquake of 25 April 2015 and the mixed migration flows through the Western Balkans between spring 2015 and spring 2016. It assesses whether these extraordinary situations indeed led to an increase in trafficking and exploitation and determines the extent to which counter-trafficking efforts were incorporated into overarching response measures. In both cases, the chapter identifies promising practices and challenges in mainstreaming counter-trafficking measures. The biggest ongoing challenge for protection actors in Nepal is to provide vulnerable populations in the districts with critical protection-related information on human trafficking and exploitation. In some countries along the Western Balkan route, meeting the immediate needs of migrants transiting through their territory proved such a challenge during the peak of the movements that only a partial response to vulnerable groups could be ensured for a number of months.

Despite the often noted negative connection between natural disasters and human trafficking, no quantitative study has been performed. Natural disasters, like conflict, can destroy homes and the economic security of individuals forcing them to migrate and making them targets for traffickers. This article tests the link between a state’s ability to address trafficking and natural disasters, testing the popular prediction that a state’s capabilities will be strained as increased natural disasters occur thus producing a negative effect. The findings though demonstrate that states are actually more likely to perform better in their efforts to confront trafficking. I argue that this is because natural disasters actually strengthen and enhance the state, and particularly its security institutions, in responding to these events. I place these findings in the context of other recent quantitative studies of trafficking that have also produced contradictory results when compared with the field’s qualitative studies.

Trafficking in persons (TIP) is a crime and a grave violation of human rights defined in Article 3(a) of the UN Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish Trafficking in Persons. It takes place in every region of the world, in both ordinary times and in times of crisis. Its root causes can include poverty and economic inequality, homelessness, structural or interpersonal violence, gender inequalities, armed conflict and post-conflict factors. TIP manifests in multiple forms affecting women, girls, boys and men who are exploited for domestic servitude, sex, forced labor, and forced marriage, among others. A growing body of research has shown that humanitarian crises may exacerbate pre-existing trafficking trends and give rise to new ones. While some forms of trafficking are a direct result of crises, such as exploitative sexual services demanded by armed groups or the forced recruitment of child soldiers, others are less evident, with traffickers thriving on the widespread human, material, social and economic losses caused by crises. Moreover, conflict and displacement have a stronger impact on trafficking risks due to the general erosion of the rule of law and the breakdown of social safety nets or the lack of other protection systems. Despite the identification of a link between TIP and emergency contexts, trafficking prevention and response is frequently overlooked or not addressed in a comprehensive manner in humanitarian responses.